Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 13 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Shanghai's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with temperatures typically ranging between 25°C and 32°C, though extremes occasionally breach these bounds.

Historical records from Shanghai's meteorological station show June temperatures have reached 35°C in anomalous years, most recently in 2013 when a heatwave pushed readings to 37.4°C mid-month. The 30–35°C band represents the modal outcome across the past two decades, occurring in roughly six out of ten June 13ths. Traders should note that the 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded; early formation often shows extreme probabilities until liquidity and participation establish equilibrium.

The key catalyst is the East Asian monsoon pattern developing through early June 2026. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by late May, which will signal whether subtropical high-pressure systems are positioning themselves over the Yangtze River Delta region—the primary driver of elevated June temperatures in Shanghai. Traders monitoring seasonal climate indices and the progression of the Western Pacific subtropical high should watch for official forecasts around mid-May, as these will provide the most reliable signal for temperature clustering in the 25–32°C versus 32–37°C ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.