Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 2?

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 2 June 2026. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground for that specific station and date.

Shanghai's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with typical daily highs ranging from 28–32°C depending on weather patterns. Historical records show considerable variability: early June can see temperatures anywhere from 24°C on cooler, overcast days to 35°C during heat waves driven by subtropical high-pressure systems. The 0% probability reading likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than any consensus view, since June temperatures in Shanghai are well-established and predictable within broad bands based on seasonal norms.

The key variable for June 2026 will be whether an active monsoon system or stationary high-pressure ridge dominates the region in early June. Recent years have shown increasing frequency of early-season heat events in eastern China, though individual daily forecasts remain unreliable beyond two weeks. Traders should monitor late May weather models and any official meteorological alerts from China's National Meteorological Centre as the settlement date approaches. The zero probability likely reflects the market's early stage; value may exist in whichever temperature band aligns with typical early-June conditions once trading becomes active.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.