Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the reference point here, and the market is effectively asking whether the day’s top reading lands in a higher or lower Celsius band than the crowd expects. With the implied probability at **0% YES**, the contract is priced as a heavy **underdog**, so the consensus is plainly that the airport will *not* post a notably high maximum temperature on the day. That leaves the main value question on the opposite side: if the forecast firms towards a warm, humid afternoon with a decent chance of clearing skies, the “no” side remains the favourite, but the market would be vulnerable to a surprise overshoot if the peak arrives during a brief hot window before convection or sea-breeze effects cap the temperature.[1][2]

June climatology at Pudong gives a useful frame. Average daily highs around this part of the month are typically in the low 30s Celsius, with June highs at Shanghai Pudong International Airport commonly rising into the 77–83°F range and occasionally pushing beyond 92°F; separately, summer climate notes for the airport say highs above 30°C are routine, with 35°C possible in sunny spells.[3][4] That makes a 0% YES price look like an aggressive assumption that today will sit well below seasonal norms. For handicappers, the contrarian angle is simple: if the live forecast or observations start to trend hotter and drier than expected, the “yes” band can become the mispriced side very quickly from an off-base zero baseline.[3][4]

The main catalysts to watch are the official hourly evolution at Pudong, any shift in rain or thunder expectations, and whether cloud cover or marine air keeps the afternoon capped. Current forecasts for nearby Shanghai airport reporting show light rain and a high around 31°C, while live conditions already show very high humidity and heavy cloud cover at Pudong, which usually limits upside unless sunshine breaks through later.[1][2] In practical terms, traders should watch for forecast changes from morning drizzle to afternoon clearing, since that is the sort of timing shift that can move the day’s maximum temperature by enough to matter for the settlement band.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.