Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s airport should post its day’s high during a hot, humid early-summer period, and the market’s 0% YES implies an extreme underdog outcome if the recorded maximum lands in the specified range. June at Shanghai Pudong International Airport typically sees daily highs rising from about 77°F to 83°F, with readings rarely below 69°F or above 92°F, while broader climate guidance says Shanghai summer highs regularly clear 30°C and can reach 35°C in the sun.[1][2]

That profile makes the consensus look heavily skewed towards a straightforward warm-to-hot reading rather than a wild outlier. In handicapper terms, the favourite is the ordinary June heat pattern, and the value question is whether there is any realistic path to an unusually cool or unusually hot peak. A market priced at 0% YES suggests traders see the target range as near-impossible, which can create contrarian interest only if the range is narrowly defined and the settlement bands are unusually high or low relative to normal airport June highs.[1][6]

For catalysts, the key watchpoint is the actual Shanghai Pudong Airport station history page used for settlement, because the result depends on the *highest* temperature recorded at any point on the day rather than the midday reading alone. Late-morning sunshine, cloud breaks, or a weak convective pulse can lift the day’s maximum, while morning showers or persistent overcast can cap it; one current airport forecast points to cloudy, humid conditions with showers in the morning, which would favour a lower high if it verifies.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.