Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Shanghai Pudong International Airport records a temperature exceeding 24°C on 23 June 2026, a threshold currently dismissed by the crowd with a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome. Historical data from June at this station shows daily highs typically climbing between 25°C and 33°C, rarely dipping below 21°C even during wetter periods, suggesting the market’s zero valuation ignores the baseline climatic reality of early summer in the region[3][7]. While today’s forecast predicts heavy rain and a high of only 24°C, June is Shanghai’s wettest month, yet even on rainy days, temperatures frequently breach the 24°C mark due to high humidity and warm air masses, making the consensus view of a guaranteed "no" appear statistically fragile[1][3].

Traders should monitor the immediate evolution of the heavy rain system and any sudden shifts in wind direction, as a break in cloud cover could trigger rapid heating despite the precipitation. The National Weather Service currently reports light showers and temperatures hovering near 23°C at 1:30 am, but the diurnal cycle often pushes highs significantly higher by afternoon, even under overcast skies[2]. Although no specific weather announcements are pending, the dependency on the Wunderground resolution source means any discrepancy between the forecasted 24°C and the actual recorded peak could create value for contrarian positions betting on a breach of the threshold, especially given that summer highs regularly exceed 30°C in this location[5]. The value spot likely sits with those willing to bet against the 0% crowd-implied probability, as the historical frequency of temperatures above 24°C in June makes the current pricing an obvious underdog trap[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.