Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

On 27 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-total consensus that the temperature will fall outside the specified range. This stance aligns with historical patterns where June highs at Pudong typically climb between 29°C and 35°C, rarely dipping below 27°C or exceeding 35°C under standard conditions[2][5]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 suggest daily highs ranging from 80°F to 86°F (approximately 27°C to 30°C), reinforcing the view that extreme outliers are unlikely[3].

Traders should monitor the onset of the plum rain season’s tail end and any sudden shifts in wind direction from the east-southeast, which could suppress temperatures. Humidity levels currently sit at 84%, a factor that often moderates peak heat despite sunny skies[1]. While no major weather announcements are scheduled, the National Weather Service data for Pudong indicates stable pressure at 1011mb, suggesting no immediate convective storms to disrupt the thermal profile[4]. Contrarian value may exist if a rare cold front intrudes from the north, pushing temperatures below the 27°C threshold, though such events are statistically infrequent in late June. The consensus remains heavily weighted toward the NO outcome, leaving little room for mispricing unless an unexpected meteorological anomaly occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.