Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a certainty that temperatures will fall within a specific range rather than betting on an extreme outcome.

May in Shanghai typically sees late-spring conditions with highs between 28–32°C, though extremes are rare. Historical records show that temperatures exceeding 35°C in May occur in roughly one year per decade, usually during heat waves driven by subtropical high-pressure systems. The 2013 Shanghai heat wave pushed May temperatures to 37°C, but such events remain statistical outliers. Seasonal patterns favour moderate readings, which explains why the crowd has concentrated probability mass elsewhere on the market rather than on extreme ranges.

The primary variable affecting 25 May's temperature will be the position and strength of the subtropical high-pressure system in late May 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global climate models from March onwards, as these typically show skill in predicting whether May will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 could influence whether the subtropical ridge strengthens, pushing temperatures toward the upper end of the typical range. Current absence of trading activity suggests the market may lack liquidity for contrarian positions on extreme outcomes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.