Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. May in Shanghai typically sees late-spring conditions with daytime highs ranging from 28 to 32 degrees Celsius, though outlier days can push toward 35 degrees during early heat waves.

Historical May data from Shanghai's meteorological records shows considerable year-to-year variation. The 30-year average for late May hovers around 29–30 degrees Celsius, but anomalies occur regularly—2013 recorded 36.1 degrees on 26 May, whilst 2019 saw only 22.8 degrees on the same date. This volatility reflects the transitional nature of late spring in the Yangtze River Delta, where subtropical high-pressure systems can either establish early or remain suppressed. The zero probability reading suggests traders may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or historical precedent to anchor their positions.

The relevant catalyst is the release of extended-range weather models in the weeks preceding late May 2026, particularly outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centres like ECMWF. Traders should monitor whether the 2026 spring develops along typical patterns or shows anomalous warming or cooling signatures. Current atmospheric indices and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Western Pacific will inform whether May 26 aligns with the historical median or edges toward the extremes observed in recent decades.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.