Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature on 10 August looks priced as a near-lock at **0% YES**, so the crowd is effectively assuming the reading will land in a temperature band well above the threshold that matters for this market. On Weather Underground’s Shenzhen history page, the morning observations already showed **89°F at 8:00 AM** and **94°F at 11:00 AM**, which translates to roughly **31.7°C and 34.4°C** respectively, with the day’s recorded high already sitting in the mid-30s Celsius by late morning.[5] That leaves the favourite firmly with the hotter outcome, while the underdog is any lower band that would require a material break from the recent pattern.

The historical and comparable read is also tilted towards heat. Shenzhen’s August climatology is firmly tropical-monsoonal: August averages around **32°C / 89°F** with warm nights and frequent humidity, and recent historical snapshots show daytime highs commonly in the **mid-to-upper 30s °C**.[7][8][18] Time and Date’s recent history for the previous day showed a **99°F** peak on 9 August, while Weather Underground’s own August history gives a typical high around **94°F** and a record of **92°F** on the page’s historical summary, underlining that elevated readings are normal enough to make a low-band upset expensive at this price.[2][5] On that basis, the consensus is clearly for a strong positive print, and the only obvious value angle is contrarian upside if a forecast change or coastal cooling caps the airport station below expectations.

For catalysts, traders should watch the airport-station observations through the Chinese afternoon, because the market settles on the **highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station** and the **Daily Observations** table is the binding source if anything conflicts with the summary section.[5] Forecast pages from AccuWeather and Time and Date both point to a hot day, with highs around **97°F / 36°C** and only modest shower risk, so the main dependency is whether cloud cover, sea breeze or convective rain trims the peak before local midday-to-afternoon heating.[11][17] The important detail is that the settlement window ends at **12:00 UTC**, so any late-day heat after that point is irrelevant even if the broader daily high ends up higher.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

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