Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's maximum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will occur or insufficient trader participation to establish consensus pricing.

Shenzhen experiences consistent summer heat in mid-August, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during this period. The city's coastal location and subtropical climate mean August temperatures rarely deviate dramatically from seasonal norms, though occasional tropical systems can suppress highs or push them marginally higher. August 2025 data and comparable years suggest the most probable outcomes cluster in the 33–34°C range, making extreme temperatures—both unusually cool and unusually hot—statistical outliers rather than base cases.

The primary variable affecting 17 August 2026 will be whether any tropical cyclone activity impacts southern China in the preceding days. The Western Pacific typhoon season peaks in August, and systems tracking towards Guangdong Province could reduce daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, a high-pressure system positioned over the region could drive temperatures towards the upper end of the historical distribution. Current seasonal forecasting models remain too distant to provide actionable guidance, meaning traders should monitor tropical weather advisories from the China Meteorological Administration and regional typhoon tracking from late July onwards.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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