Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 10 July 2026, a date historically synonymous with extreme heat in southern China. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to an expectation of unusually cool conditions or a misreading of the resolution threshold.

Historically, July is the hottest month at this station, with average highs reaching 89°F (32°C) and frequent peaks exceeding 90°F (32.2°C), as confirmed by long-term climate data[2]. In July 2025, temperatures hovered between 75°F and 80°F, but recent forecasts for 10 July 2026 indicate a high of 91°F (33°C) with morning thunderstorms, a pattern that typically suppresses peak heat slightly but rarely below 30°C[5]. The consensus leans heavily toward the temperature staying within the upper range, yet the 0% implied probability may represent a contrarian value spot if traders are overestimating the cooling effect of rain.

Traders should monitor the timing and intensity of the predicted morning thunderstorm, as heavy precipitation can cap the day’s maximum temperature, though Shenzhen’s humidity often maintains highs above 30°C even after rain[5][8]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the National Weather Service notes persistent southeasterly winds at 18 kt, which may influence cloud cover and heat retention[6]. The key dependency is whether the storm clears before midday; if it lingers, the peak could dip below the threshold, creating value for the underdog position despite the current 0% pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.