Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement range for this market. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Shenzhen's subtropical climate produces reliably hot July conditions, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during mid-summer. The airport station, located in the coastal Pearl River Delta region, experiences maritime influences that can moderate peak temperatures compared to inland areas, though humidity levels remain consistently high.

Historical July data from Shenzhen shows the highest daily temperatures cluster heavily in the 33–35°C range, with readings above 36°C occurring in roughly one-third of years during this period. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded. Traders should recognise that July 2026 falls within the typical summer monsoon season, when tropical systems occasionally develop offshore. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts in June that could shift expectations if an anomalous weather pattern is flagged, though such deviations from the 33–35°C consensus are historically infrequent. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 July, creating a hard deadline for Wunderground's historical record to populate.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.