Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

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Market context

Singapore’s afternoon maximum is the key number here, because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Changi Airport on 6 August, not the daytime average. The crowd is effectively pricing a **32°C** outcome as the favourite at **78% implied probability**, with **31°C** the main underdog/value alternative at **15%** and **33°C** a thin tail at **6%**; that leaves the rest of the curve heavily skewed towards the low-30s rather than anything extreme. August climatology in Singapore supports that shape: long-run daily highs are about **30–31°C** in regional forecasts, while AccuWeather’s August outlook sits around **84–88°F** (roughly **29–31°C**) for the month, which is consistent with a tight band rather than a wide dispersion.[1][5][20]

The handicapper’s case for the favourite is that Singapore’s tropical baseline and persistent humidity usually keep highs clustered in the low 30s, so the market consensus is already close to the historical centre of mass. The contrarian angle is that a market this skewed often overstates the certainty of the modal number: a brief shower or thicker cloud cover can cap the day at **31°C**, especially if convection develops before the peak heating window, while an unusually sunny, drier spell is what traders need for **33°C** or above. That matters because official Singapore weather advisories have recently pointed to **drier conditions** in the coming fortnight, which would be supportive of a hotter print if it persists into the settlement day.[12]

For catalysts, watch the day’s actual cloud cover, shower timing and any short-notice forecast updates rather than broader monthly averages. Changi Airport is close enough to the sea that wind shifts and afternoon convection can move the needle on the daily high, and the market’s settlement source uses the highest reading published for that station on the day, so late updates before the cutoff still matter. With the settlement window ending at **12:00 UTC**, the key trading question is whether morning conditions hold clear enough for the day’s peak to reach the consensus **32°C**, or whether showers trim the high back to **31°C**.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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