Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

The Singapore Changi Airport weather station will record a daily high temperature on 26 May 2026, with the market resolving to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The 0% implied probability across all temperature bands suggests either a technical issue with market construction or genuine uncertainty about which specific range will settle, rather than doubt that a temperature will be recorded.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima during late May. Historical data from Changi shows the typical high in this period ranges between 31–34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 30°C. The monsoon transition from southwest to northeast occurs around this time, occasionally introducing cloud cover and convective activity that can suppress afternoon peaks. May 2025 saw highs clustering in the 32–33°C band on comparable dates, providing a reasonable baseline for seasonal expectations.

Traders should monitor the Indian Ocean Dipole and any developing weather systems in the week preceding the settlement date. The Meteorological Department of Singapore issues five-day forecasts that typically gain accuracy within 72 hours of the target date. Any significant tropical disturbance or unusual upper-level patterns could shift outcomes toward the cooler end of the range, though such deviations remain statistically uncommon for this location and season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 26 May, giving traders until that point to assess morning observations before final resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.