Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s high on 10 August is shaping up as a **temperature-band market**, with the crowd pricing a **0% YES** line on the 35°C bucket, which makes the favourite effectively “hot but not extreme” and leaves the underdog value in the upper tails if the city spikes under strong afternoon sun. Current live forecast sources point to highs around **32.6–34°C**, while broader August climatology for Taipei sits near **33°C** with humid, storm-prone conditions that often cap the day before the most intense inland heat can fully build.[2][3][5][7][11]

For historical framing, August in Taipei routinely produces highs around **33°C**, and some guides put the typical day near **30–34°C**, but the record for 10 August is much higher at **38.0°C** in 2019, so the market is not betting on an impossible tail, just a less common one.[2][3][14][16] That makes the consensus look anchored around the low-to-mid 30s, with the favourite likely to be whichever band captures **33–34°C**; the contrarian angle is that urban heat and late-morning sunshine can push the observed maximum one notch above forecasts if showers arrive late.[8][11]

The main catalyst is the **actual Weather Underground Daily Observations** reading at Taipei Songshan Airport, not the summary high/low figure, so traders should watch for any late-day updates to the station trace and for convective rain timing, which can suppress the peak if storms move through early.[8] Forecast products for today already show showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, which supports a softer cap on the upside, though short-range model revisions can still shift the highest-reading band by one degree if clearing happens earlier than expected.[6][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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