Highest temperature in Taipei on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s afternoon heat is the key driver here, and the market’s **0% YES** implies traders are treating the exact top-end temperature band as effectively unpriced or mis-specified rather than a live weather call. The current crowd consensus on Polymarket is concentrated in the **35°C–36°C** range, with **35°C** the front-runner at **31%** and **36°C** next at **27%**, so the favourite is a mid-30s outcome rather than an extreme spike or a cooler day.[1] On the available climatology, August in Taipei is typically hot and humid, with average highs around **33°C–34°C**, which makes the consensus broadly consistent with seasonal norms even if the market is leaning slightly above average.[5][15][16]

That is the useful handicapper’s read: the consensus sits in the *favourite* zone around the mid-30s, while the *value* question is whether the market is overpaying for a brief surge to **35°C+** if cloud, rain bands, or a sea-breeze effect cap the day earlier. Taipei August weather is usually humid and unsettled, with rainfall and typhoon risk both material enough to suppress maximum temperatures on any given day, so contrarian interest usually sits in the lower 30s rather than at the very top of the range.[7][12][15] Comparable August forecasts for Taipei commonly show highs around **33°C** rather than sustained upper-30s heat, which matters because the market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station**, not a citywide average.[2][12][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any tropical system tracking towards northern Taiwan, and day-of precipitation or cloud cover changes that can move the high by 1–3 degrees Celsius. A late morning shower or a stronger-than-expected convective build-up would favour the underdog cooler bands, while clear skies and delayed sea-breeze cooling would reinforce the mid-30s favourite; AccuWeather’s August outlook has Taipei around **30–34°C** on surrounding dates, underscoring how narrow the likely range is around this settlement window.[2][4][7] Because resolution is tied to the airport station reading on a single day, the final value can differ from broader Taipei city forecasts, so the market is most sensitive to localised conditions rather than the headline city average.[2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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