Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is currently experiencing a typhoon on 11 July 2026, with heavy rain and wind suppressing any chance of extreme heat. The crowd-implied probability for the market’s highest temperature threshold sits at 0% YES, reflecting consensus that the storm will prevent temperatures from reaching the target range. Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs near 33°C (92°F) at Songshan, but typhoons routinely disrupt this pattern by introducing cloud cover and precipitation that cap daytime temperatures well below seasonal peaks [1][4].

The primary catalyst for traders is the evolving typhoon track and intensity, which dictates whether rain persists through midday or clears to allow solar heating. Current forecasts indicate 100% rain probability and heavy precipitation continuing into the afternoon, with maximum temperatures capped near 29°C [2][10]. A contrarian angle would only emerge if the typhoon veers sharply east or weakens rapidly before 12:00Z, allowing a brief heat spike, though such a shift is not supported by current METAR data showing 93% humidity and 12mm of hourly rain [8]. Until the storm’s path clarifies, the 0% probability remains the fair value spot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.