Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 16 June 2026. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range.

Taipei's June climate is consistently warm and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. The 0% probability reading appears misaligned with seasonal norms; even in cooler-than-average years, the city rarely records June highs below 30°C. The airport station, located in the city centre, tends to register slightly higher temperatures than suburban areas due to urban heat effects. Comparable June days over the past decade show clustering around 33–34°C, with extremes reaching 36°C during heat waves and dipping to 29–30°C during monsoon-influenced periods. This historical spread suggests the market's current odds reflect either a technical glitch or a single temperature band capturing all traded volume.

Traders should monitor the broader East Asian weather pattern developing through May and early June 2026. The onset of the southwest monsoon typically influences Taiwan's weather by mid-June, potentially suppressing temperatures if a trough establishes itself. Conversely, a high-pressure system anchored over the region could drive temperatures toward the upper end of the seasonal range. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 16 June, giving traders a full day of actual temperature data before resolution against Wunderground's historical records.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.