Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Taipei Songshan Airport on 26 May 2026, measured in Celsius. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the market, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing.

Taipei's late May climate sits at the threshold of summer onset. Historical data from the past decade shows maximum temperatures on 26 May ranging between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes toward 33°C during warmer years. The 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges is unusual and typically reflects either a data-loading issue or a market with minimal trading activity. Comparable May dates at Songshan Airport show consistent clustering around 30–31°C as the modal outcome, with the full distribution rarely breaching 35°C or falling below 27°C. This historical pattern suggests the crowd's absence of conviction may present value opportunities once the market gains traction.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration publishes seasonal forecasts in April, with more granular 10-day outlooks arriving in mid-May. Any significant weather system—tropical depressions tracking toward the Taiwan Strait or unusual high-pressure ridging—would shift expectations materially. Wunderground's historical data feed typically finalises within 24 hours of the settlement window closing, though occasional delays occur during severe weather events. Traders should monitor late-May tropical cyclone activity across the Western Pacific, as even systems passing well north of Taiwan can elevate temperatures through atmospheric dynamics.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.