Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s **highest temperature on 10 August** is effectively an intraday heat-ranges market, and the current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** leaves the favourite side looking extremely pricing-sensitive rather than impossible. On Weather Underground’s Tokyo history page, the current snapshot already has the afternoon well into the mid-30s Fahrenheit-equivalent range, but the settlement point here is the **Daily Observations** maximum at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, not the headline day-high box, so traders should treat the live table as the only score that matters.[6][10][16]

History argues against assuming a soft cap. Tokyo’s 10 August highs in recent years have often clustered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with 2021 at 36.8°C, 2022 at 35.3°C, 2023 at 34.4°C, 2024 at 34.9°C and 2025 much cooler at 27.1°C because of rain.[1] JMA ranking data also shows that August heat in Tokyo can move well beyond 35°C on extreme days, including 38°C-plus readings elsewhere in the month, while recent coverage has noted repeated Tokyo runs of 35°C or hotter and a broader national record-heat backdrop.[2][9][18]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual temperature progression, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any showers or thunderstorm outflows that can blunt the peak before local afternoon heating completes.[10][16] With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the market will mainly reflect the late-morning to early-afternoon Japanese heat window, so the value question is whether consensus is over-discounting a typical August rise into the low 30s Celsius or anchoring too hard to a cooler, rain-affected recent comparison.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.