Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature band will contain the highest reading recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 15 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about the range options available.

Tokyo's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical highs clustering between 34–37°C at Haneda. The Japan Meteorological Agency's records show that mid-August typically falls within the warmest period of the summer season, with extreme heat events (38°C+) occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% implied probability across all outcomes suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on the temperature bands offered or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller specification of the resolution ranges.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts released in July 2026, which will provide guidance on whether atmospheric patterns favour above or below-average heat for that specific week. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 could shift baseline expectations; the current weak La Niña pattern may influence summer intensity. Any unusual heat dome formation across East Asia in early August would serve as a leading indicator. The critical dependency remains clarification of the actual temperature bands against which settlement will occur—without defined ranges, the market cannot properly price relative likelihood.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.