Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 16 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish pricing. Tokyo's August climate is characteristically hot and humid, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C.

Historical August data from Haneda shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the station recorded August highs spanning from 30.5°C to 37.8°C, with most years clustering in the 33–35°C band. The 2023 heatwave pushed temperatures to 37.5°C on multiple days, whilst cooler Augusts have seen highs near 31°C. This volatility reflects the interplay between Pacific high-pressure systems and occasional tropical storm activity that can suppress temperatures mid-month.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions entering northern hemisphere summer can materially shift regional temperature patterns; current oceanic indices will inform whether 2026 leans toward above or below-average heat. Typhoon activity in late July or early August could also suppress temperatures heading into the 16th, creating potential value in lower-range outcomes if seasonal models suggest tropical system proximity.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.