Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport has been trading like a **modest heat-leaning favourite**, but the current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests the market is still treating the exact outcome range as very open rather than pinned to one bin. The resolution uses the day’s **highest recorded temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** on 6 August, so the finish line is the peak reading, not the afternoon forecast high, which matters if a brief mid-afternoon spike or an early-evening easing changes the bin. Japan Meteorological Agency observations already show Tokyo-area August highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with Haneda at **35.6°C on 1 August** and **33.0°C on 2 August** in the same month, which keeps the centre of gravity around the low 30s rather than extreme-heat territory.[1]

For a handicapper, the consensus sits around the **33–34°C band**, which is where the adjacent contracts have been concentrating in the broader market, with 33°C currently the frontrunner and 34°C close behind.[4] That makes the value question less about whether it gets hot and more about whether the day overshoots or undershoots the market’s modal expectation. Historic August norms for Tokyo are around **31°C average highs**, but late-summer urban heat and humidity can easily add a degree or two above the average, especially under strong Pacific High conditions.[10][13][14]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the live Haneda observation feed through the morning and early afternoon, any last-minute shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or rainfall, and whether temperatures peak before the settlement window cuts off at **12:00 UTC**. Forecast services for Tokyo on 6 August point to a high near **32–32°C**, with mostly sunny conditions and light winds, which supports a **slight underdog case for the upper-mid 30s** rather than a clean blowout to the hottest bins.[2][3] The contrarian angle is that even a small early-day warm-up can be enough to decide between neighbouring outcomes, so the market is likely to stay sensitive to each new observation rather than drift on long-range weather context alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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