Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a metric that directly determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a YES outcome, suggesting the consensus firmly believes the temperature will not reach the specified threshold. This stark pricing contrasts with historical July data, where Haneda routinely experiences highs between 26°C and 35°C, with forecast models for July 2026 indicating daily peaks ranging from 76°F to 91°F (approximately 24°C to 33°C)[1][2].

Historical precedents frame this probability as potentially mispriced, given Japan’s recent record-breaking heatwaves. In 2025, Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City, shattering the previous 2018 record of 41.1°C[5][3]. While Haneda is coastal and typically cooler than inland areas like Kumagaya, the broader trend of intensifying summer heat suggests a contrarian angle where the 0% pricing ignores the volatility of extreme weather events. Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat advisories and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which often drives temperature spikes in the Kanto region[9]. Recent reports confirm that July in Tokyo remains characteristically humid with temperatures in the low 30s and frequent rain or cloud cover, yet the potential for a sudden heat surge remains a critical dependency for this market[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.