Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces a mid-July heatwave today, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to record its peak temperature for 13 July 2026. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, despite forecasts indicating daily highs between 29°C and 33°C for the Haneda area [1][2].

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a potential mispricing rather than a certainty. While July averages at Tokyo International Airport hover around 29.8°C, recent years show mid-to-late July frequently breaching 36°C in the wider city, driven by humidity levels exceeding 95% [4]. Japan’s all-time record of 41.2°C was set in late July 2025, proving that extreme spikes are possible even when averages suggest moderation [5]. The consensus ignores the volatility of the 2026 heat season, where a single convective burst could push Haneda well above the implied threshold, creating value for contrarian traders betting on the outlier.

Traders must monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast issued at 11:00 today, which currently lists the daily normal maximum at 29.8°C but allows for significant deviation [8]. The primary catalyst is the incoming shower probability of 48% for Monday 13 July, which could suppress temperatures if rain arrives before the peak heating window of 11 AM to 6 PM [4][10]. However, if the showers clear by Tuesday, partly cloudy conditions could allow temperatures to climb toward 33°C or higher, aligning with the 83°–90°F range seen in AccuWeather’s monthly outlook [1]. The dependency on cloud cover timing creates a binary outcome where a late-clearing sky could invalidate the 0% pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.