Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 14 July 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or are avoiding the market entirely due to the distance of the event date.

Tokyo's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical data from Haneda shows July highs cluster between 32–35°C, with extreme readings above 36°C occurring in roughly one in five years during the month. The 2023 heatwave pushed Tokyo to 37.5°C in mid-July, whilst cooler years see peaks near 31°C. The current flat probability distribution reflects genuine uncertainty about whether 2026 will be an anomalously hot year, a typical year, or a cooler outlier—a reasonable stance given the three-year forecasting horizon and the inherent variability of East Asian summer weather patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track El Niño and La Niña forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency, as these patterns significantly influence Pacific-region summer temperatures. The strength of the Pacific High pressure system in early July 2026 will be the primary driver of whether Haneda records a routine mid-30s reading or edges toward the 36°C threshold. Long-range seasonal outlooks typically become reliable only 4–6 weeks before the event, meaning meaningful information asymmetry will emerge closer to settlement. Any sustained heatwave warnings for the Kanto region in late June 2026 would shift the probability landscape considerably.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.