Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 17 July 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground historical data. The 0% implied probability suggests traders expect the market will not resolve to any single temperature range, though this reflects the current state of betting rather than meteorological certainty.

Tokyo's July climate is consistently warm and humid. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows mid-July temperatures at Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with occasional readings above 36°C during heat waves. The 2010 heat wave pushed Tokyo to 39.5°C in early August, whilst July 2019 saw several days exceed 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday on 17 July, capturing only morning and early afternoon readings rather than the full diurnal cycle, which may suppress the recorded maximum compared to typical daily peaks.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, which will indicate whether high-pressure systems or tropical air masses are positioned over the Kanto region. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months influence summer temperature patterns across Japan. Recent summers have shown increasing frequency of days exceeding 35°C, though predicting a specific date's maximum remains subject to synoptic variability. The early settlement time (noon) is a material constraint—most days' highest temperatures occur in mid-to-late afternoon, meaning the recorded maximum may fall below what would be observed with a full-day window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.