Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 28 July 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground historical data. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are not backing any single temperature bracket, indicating either genuine uncertainty across all ranges or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus pricing.

Tokyo's late July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical records from the Japan Meteorological Agency show that maximum temperatures in the final week of July typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during heat waves. The 2010 heat wave pushed readings to 39.5°C at nearby stations, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Haneda Airport's coastal location in Ota Ward moderates temperatures slightly compared to central Tokyo, typically reducing peaks by 1–2°C relative to inland districts. This geographic factor anchors expectations around the 33–36°C band for ordinary conditions.

The key variable for late July 2026 is whether a Pacific high-pressure system intensifies over the Kanto region during that specific week. Japan's rainy season typically concludes by early July, leaving late July exposed to potential heat dome formation. The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric patterns expected for summer 2026. Traders should monitor whether official forecasts issued in spring 2026 signal above-normal or near-normal temperatures for the period, as such guidance historically correlates with actual outcomes. Current market pricing at 0% across all brackets suggests either data unavailability or a genuine absence of directional conviction among participants.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.