Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, Tokyo Haneda Airport will face a critical summer day where the highest recorded temperature determines the market outcome, with current crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% for any YES result. Historically, early July in this region marks the onset of the hot season, which runs from late June to mid-September, with average daily highs consistently exceeding 79°F (26°C) [6]. Recent data from the Met Office indicates maximum temperatures reaching 28°C on comparable days, while July 2026 forecasts project daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24°C to 33°C) [3][4]. The consensus heavily leans toward lower ranges like 26°C or 27°C, yet the 0% implied probability for higher thresholds suggests a significant mispricing, as the 31°C or higher bracket holds notable trading volume despite being undervalued by the crowd [2].

Traders must monitor the immediate weather schedule, as today’s forecast predicts light rain and temperatures between 18°C and 25°C, potentially masking the heat spike expected tomorrow [1]. The primary catalyst is the shift to precipitation-free conditions tomorrow, which typically drives rapid temperature increases in humid coastal zones like Haneda. While no specific government announcements are pending, the broader context of Japan’s record-breaking heat in 2025, where Tamba City hit 41.2°C, underscores the volatility of summer temperatures in the region [8]. Contrarian value lies in betting against the 0% consensus for the 31°C+ range, as the 28°C maximum feels like a conservative baseline given the humidity and lack of cloud cover expected tomorrow [3]. The 28°C to 29°C ranges appear to be the true value spots, offering better risk-reward than the heavily crowded lower bands.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.