Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines whether the market resolves to the “YES” outcome. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to this happening, suggesting near-universal consensus that the temperature will fall outside the specified range. Yet historical data from July in Tokyo shows daily highs routinely reaching 30–32°C, with AccuWeather forecasting a range of 76–91°F (24–33°C) for Haneda in July 2026[3]. Recent years have seen extreme heat: in July 2025, Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Hyogo, and over 120 heatstroke deaths occurred in Tokyo alone during that month[7][8].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s daily forecast for Haneda, which currently notes a maximum feels-like temperature of 25°C with gusts up to 15mph[1]. The key catalyst is the Wunderground daily record, which will be the official resolution source; any deviation from expected highs could signal value in contrarian positions. While the consensus leans heavily against the “YES” outcome, the historical volatility of Tokyo’s summer heat—coupled with rising average temperatures over the past 30 years[7]—creates a potential value spot for those willing to bet against the 0% crowd-implied probability. The underdog here is the “YES” outcome, but its value may lie in the gap between market certainty and climatic reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.