Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak heat expected at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 9 July 2026, with the crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sitting at 0% YES. Consensus across major platforms like Polymarket heavily favours 30°C, assigned a 97% chance, while Lines.com fragments the market, making 29°C the plurality favourite at 31.5% despite it not being a majority. Historical data from recent July days shows highs typically ranging between 27°C and 31°C, with the Pacific High exerting lingering influence; this suggests the 0% line likely targets a narrow band that is statistically improbable rather than a complete miss, creating value for contrarian traders betting on 31°C or higher if ensemble models shift.

Traders must monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecast updates, as price can move sharply before the 12:00 UTC resolution window closes. The primary catalyst is the official observation from Wunderground, which will record the highest temperature for all times on that day, and any deviation from the current 30°C consensus could stem from sudden changes in southerly wind speeds or cloud cover. Recent diurnal trends indicate light winds and partly cloudy skies, which typically cap temperatures below 32°C, yet the record-breaking 41.2°C heatwave in Tamba city earlier this month underscores the volatility of Japanese summer weather, making a contrarian angle on 31°C a plausible value spot if the Pacific High strengthens unexpectedly.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.