Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 8 June 2026, with settlement contingent on Weather Underground historical data. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in an outcome where no temperature reading falls within a particular range—likely the upper bracket—reflecting scepticism about extreme heat on that specific date.

Tokyo's early June climate typically sits between 22–28°C, with occasional peaks toward 30°C during warmer years. Historical data from Haneda shows June temperatures rarely exceed 32°C; the last time the airport recorded above 35°C in June was 2019. The 0% pricing implies the market is heavily discounting the likelihood of an unusually hot day, which aligns with seasonal norms but leaves potential value if traders have anchored too low on tail-risk scenarios. Heatwaves do occur in early June, though they're statistically uncommon enough that consensus positioning reflects baseline expectations rather than anomalous conditions.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 8 June, as these will provide the first reliable signals of any developing high-pressure system or heat dome. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift seasonal patterns; the current phase will influence whether June runs warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. Any official warnings of unusual heat from the JMA would likely shift market pricing sharply, making early-week forecast updates the critical catalyst for reassessing the current consensus.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.