Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to this outcome occurring, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on the market.

Late May in Tokyo typically sits in the warm-to-hot transition period, with daily highs averaging 26–28°C based on thirty-year normals. The 0% implied probability indicates the market has already settled on a particular range as near-certain, likely reflecting that May temperatures in Tokyo rarely deviate dramatically from seasonal norms. Historical data from Haneda shows May highs cluster tightly: extreme outliers above 32°C or below 20°C occur in fewer than 5% of years. The current pricing suggests traders view the outcome as sufficiently constrained by climatology that alternative ranges warrant negligible odds.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecasts released in April 2026, which typically flag El Niño or La Niña conditions that could shift May temperatures 1–2°C above or below normal. Atmospheric patterns in late April will signal whether subtropical high-pressure systems establish early, potentially driving temperatures toward the upper end of the May range. Any unusual weather systems crossing the region in the weeks preceding settlement could alter local conditions at Haneda, though the airport's coastal location and urban heat island effects create relatively stable microclimatic conditions compared to inland sites.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.