Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus pricing.

Late May in Tokyo typically sits within a warm but not extreme window. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that 26 May averages a high of around 26–27°C, with typical daily maxima ranging between 24–29°C. Notably, the record high for late May in the Tokyo area is 35.1°C, set in 2013, though such outliers remain rare. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet attracted sufficient trading activity to differentiate between plausible temperature bands, making this a handicapper's opportunity to identify where consensus might eventually settle once volume increases.

The primary catalyst will be seasonal weather patterns in late May, when the Japanese rainy season (tsuyu) typically begins. Japan's Meteorological Agency issues forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with increasing precision as the date approaches. Any unusual atmospheric setup—such as an early heat dome or persistent low-pressure system—would shift expectations materially. Traders should monitor the agency's 10-day and monthly outlooks released in early May, as these will anchor where smart money begins positioning. Current conditions suggest a straightforward seasonal scenario, but the zero-probability reading leaves room for value once actual forecasting data emerges.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.