Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Toronto's highest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete pricing or awaiting range definitions from the platform.

May 24th falls in late spring for Toronto, a transitional period where daily highs typically range between 18–24°C, though outlier days occasionally reach 26–28°C. Historical records show that temperatures above 25°C occur roughly one year in three during this window, whilst readings exceeding 30°C are exceptionally rare at this date. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet crystallised trader conviction; this often reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that all outcomes are implausible. Toronto's spring weather remains volatile enough that any single day's high carries meaningful variance.

The settlement window closes at midday on 24 May 2026, giving traders approximately eighteen months to assess seasonal patterns and any emerging climate signals. Environment Canada's long-range forecasts, typically issued in April, will provide the first formal guidance on whether 2026 May conditions favour above or below-normal temperatures. Traders should monitor whether late-winter 2026 precipitation and snow melt patterns suggest an early warm-up or delayed spring, as these factors influence soil moisture and early-season heat retention across southern Ontario.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.