Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport on 27 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete market formation or technical listing issues rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Warsaw's July climate sits firmly in summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 23–26°C, though extremes have reached 30°C or above during heat waves. The city's 30-year average high for late July hovers around 24°C. Recent European summer patterns show increasing frequency of anomalous heat events; the 2023 summer saw several Central European locations exceed their seasonal norms by 5–8°C. Comparable airports in the region—Prague, Kraków—show similar baseline distributions, making historical precedent a reasonable guide for expected ranges.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-July onwards, particularly extended-range models from ECMWF and GFS issued in early July. Atmospheric blocking patterns, jet stream positioning, and any developing heat dome over the continent will be critical signals. The UK Met Office and Deutscher Wetterdienst typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks by late June that can narrow uncertainty. Seasonal climate indices—the North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture anomalies—may hint at whether late July 2026 trends warmer or cooler than the 30-year mean. Current zero-probability assignment suggests the market requires initial liquidity and participant engagement to establish meaningful price discovery.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.