Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport temperature market is trading as a **heavy underdog** at a crowd-implied **0% yes**, but the live weather picture does not support a zero event in any literal sense. AccuWeather has Wellington at **60°F/49°F** for 10 August, with a forecast high around **15.6°C**, and Weather Underground is already showing a morning reading in the mid-teens Celsius equivalent, so the market consensus appears to be that the top-end outcome sits comfortably in the low-to-mid teens rather than an extreme spike.[2][5]

From a handicapper’s angle, this looks more like a question of *which bucket* the day lands in than whether it reaches a plausible range at all. Wellington’s August climate is generally cool and stable: long-run references put typical daytime highs around **12°C**, with August highs usually clustered near **11–12°C** and rarely exceeding the upper teens.[10][18][19] That framing matters because a 0% price can create value in the nearest sensible band if the market is being asked to resolve to a modestly warmer-than-average peak, while the real contrarian risk is a benign sunny spell that nudges the airport reading a degree or two higher than the broader regional forecast.[2][10]

Traders should watch the rest of the day’s hourly progression at Wellington Intl Airport, since the settlement source is the **Weather Underground daily observations table**, not the summary high/low box. The key dependency is whether the midday period reaches or briefly exceeds the early forecast peak; AccuWeather is calling **sunny to partly cloudy** conditions with only a **20%** precipitation chance, which makes the upside mostly a temperature-and-cloud-cover question rather than a rain event.[2][3][5] If the airport station runs a little warmer than central Wellington forecasts suggest, the value shifts towards the higher adjacent range; if marine air and southerly flow hold, the consensus low-teens outcome remains dominant.[6][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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