Highest temperature in Wellington on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport needs an unusually warm August 7 afternoon to cash this market, and the crowd’s **0% YES** implies traders are treating that as effectively out of range. In climate terms, August is late winter in Wellington: average daytime highs are only around the low teens Celsius, with typical monthly maxima near **12.9°C** and warm days usually topping out around **16°C**; the August record cited by climate guides is only **18°C**, which is a useful benchmark for the sort of upside required here.[18][14]

That makes the favourite the **NO** side, and the current consensus looks anchored to the city’s cool, windy winter profile rather than an outlier spike. The value question is whether the airport can get a brief sunbreak and light northerly flow strong enough to push the day’s high into the upper teens, but historical August data suggest that is a contrarian angle rather than the base case.[18][16] Comparable climate references also show August highs in Wellington generally clustering below the mid-teens, reinforcing why the market is priced as a deep underdog for YES.[14][2]

The main catalysts are local weather systems rather than scheduled events: a passing front, stronger-than-expected northerlies, or a sheltered inland airflow can all lift the daytime maximum, while cloud, rain and southerlies keep the result suppressed. Because settlement is tied to the **highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station** on the day, traders will care less about the nightly low and more about whether the afternoon peak clears the relevant band on Wunderground’s daily history page.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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