Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport is priced as a **cold-weather, low-ceiling** outcome rather than a summer-style spike, with the market implying **0% YES** for a higher temperature band and the live forecast sitting around **12°C to 14°C** for the day. That makes the favourite the lower brackets, with the main question being whether the station merely tops out in the low teens or briefly tags a slightly warmer reading before cloud and wind shut the lid on the afternoon. Forecasts from AccuWeather, WeatherWatch and other services point to cloudy conditions, a breezy northerly flow and some rain, all of which lean against a late-day temperature surge.[2][3][6]

Historically, Wellington in August is a fairly tight range city: long-run climate references put average highs near **12°C to 13°C**, with daily highs often clustering in the mid-teens Fahrenheit-equivalent and only limited upside beyond that. WeatherSpark describes August highs around **54°F** and rarely above **59°F**, while AccuWeather’s month view shows forecast highs mostly between **53°F and 60°F**. For handicap purposes, that supports the consensus on the under side and suggests any value on the contrarian over would need a genuine forecasting miss, not just a small afternoon lift.[1][10][16]

The key catalyst is the **Wunderground Daily Observations** feed for Wellington Intl Airport, because that is the settlement source and it overrides the summary high/low panel if the two diverge. Traders should watch the timing of the first warm-up after sunrise, any brief clearing, and whether rain arrives early enough to cap the day’s maximum; AccuWeather and Wunderground both show rain and cloud pressure on the temperature profile, which matters more than the headline daily high. In a market already at **0% YES**, the only realistic value spot is a tiny contrarian position on a station observation landing above forecast if the north wind mixes warmer air through the late morning.[2][11][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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