Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 is set to resolve against a tight winter climatology, with the crowd currently assigning 0% probability to any outcome above the consensus range. Historical service records show July highs in Wellington clustering between 11–14°C, with a mean near 12°C and a modest upside potential for 14°C only under rare conditions[1]. The current frontrunner is 13°C at 96.8%, while 14°C sits at just 3.3%, reflecting a market that views any significant deviation as highly improbable[1].

For traders, the key catalyst is the real-time Wunderground feed for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, which will publish the day’s maximum once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July[1]. Current forecast models and Wellington’s winter climatology firmly position 13°C as the most likely daily maximum, leaving little room for contrarian value unless an unexpected warm air mass arrives[1]. With no major weather announcements scheduled and dependencies limited to the official Wunderground dataset, the market’s 0% YES probability on higher temperatures aligns closely with the historical peak range, suggesting the consensus is well-calibrated and value spots are scarce[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.