Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at the International Airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. The crowd is currently pricing this at 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or a technical issue with market pricing. July sits firmly in Wellington's winter, when daytime highs typically range between 11–13°C, though occasional warm spells can push readings into the mid-to-high teens.

Historical records from Wellington Airport show July temperatures rarely exceed 15°C, with the coldest months producing maxima around 8–9°C during severe cold snaps. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will occur. Comparable winter-month markets in New Zealand's capital typically see probability distributed across the 10–15°C and 15–20°C bands, with the former commanding stronger backing given Wellington's maritime climate and consistent winter patterns.

Traders should monitor the MetService forecast for mid-July 2026 as the settlement date approaches, particularly any indication of high-pressure systems or northwesterly flow that could drive warmer air into the region. Wellington's exposure to Cook Strait means rapid temperature swings are possible, though sustained warmth during July remains statistically unlikely. The current flat pricing suggests value may emerge once forecasting models converge on a likely range, particularly if early-July conditions signal an anomalous warm spell developing into the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.