Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at Wellington International Airport on 31 July is priced as a **0% yes** shot, so the market is effectively treating a higher-than-usual winter reading as the least likely outcome. The consensus leans towards a cool, cloudy day: current forecast sources put Friday’s high around **9–14°C**, with patchy rain or showers and fresh northerly winds rather than any heat spike.[1][5][6]

That lines up with the historical base case. Wellington’s July highs are usually in the low teens, with long-run averages around **11°C** for the city and daily highs commonly sitting near **53°F/12°C**; for 31 July specifically, climatology pages point to typical highs in the low-to-mid teens and frequent rain.[2][13][20] In handicapper terms, the favourite is clearly the lower temperature bands, while the 0% pricing creates a thin but obvious contrarian case for a brief warm gust or sunbreak pushing the airport above the crowd’s assumed range. The value, if any, sits in the bands just above the market’s centre of gravity rather than at the extreme warm end.

The main catalysts are weather-system timing and wind direction rather than any scheduled announcement. Wellington is already under forecasts for northerly flow, patchy rain nearby, and possible severe-gale conditions in exposed places, which can either cap daytime warmth through cloud and rain or, if winds ease and skies briefly clear, allow a short-lived higher max before the settlement window closes at noon UTC.[1][4][6] Traders should watch the final overnight and early-morning updates for changes in rainfall timing and wind strength, since the airport’s recorded daily high will be set before the local afternoon warms the city further.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.