Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, the Wellington International Airport will record its peak daily temperature, a figure that historically clusters tightly around the mid-teens in Celsius during early winter. June in Wellington sees daily highs drift from roughly 56°F to 53°F, rarely dipping below 48°F or soaring past 61°F, with solar energy remaining essentially constant throughout the month. Short-term forecast models and NIWA’s seasonal outlook both point to near-average conditions, suggesting a maximum near 13°C with no strong signal for extremes like intense cold outbreaks or blocking highs. This climological stability frames the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome deviating significantly from this norm, as the consensus firmly anchors on 13°C.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from MetService NZ, which recently confirmed Wellington already surpassed its record June maximum with temperatures exceeding 19°C on the 1st and 2nd of the month, though such spikes are anomalous. The key catalyst remains the absence of significant atmospheric disruptions; any sudden shift toward southerly gusts, similar to the 37.1 m/s event recorded in 2013, could alter the trajectory, yet current guidance clusters between 12–14°C with no indication of such volatility. While the market heavily favours 13°C at 98%, the contrarian angle lies in the rare possibility of a 14°C or 15°C outcome if unseasonal warmth persists, offering marginal value for those betting against the overwhelming consensus. The implied probability of 0% for higher ranges reflects this deep confidence in average conditions, leaving little room for surprise unless a sudden weather system intervenes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.