Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at the airport station and resolved against historical weather data. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or viewing the outcome as highly uncertain across all temperature bands, rather than dismissing any single range as impossible.

June is Wellington's winter month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 10–14°C at the airport station. The city's exposed coastal location and southerly exposure mean temperature volatility is common; cold fronts can drive readings below 8°C whilst föhn-like northwesterly flows occasionally push maxima into the high teens. Comparable June days over the past decade show the 12–15°C band captures roughly 40% of outcomes, with roughly equal splits between cooler (8–11°C) and warmer (15–18°C+) scenarios. The 0% reading reflects thin liquidity rather than consensus rejection of any particular range.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies in the weeks preceding early June, as these influence whether a high-pressure system or low-pressure trough dominates the region. The New Zealand MetService issues its long-range outlook in May, which typically clarifies whether the month will trend warmer or cooler than climatological norms. No scheduled meteorological announcements directly trigger resolution, but the settlement window closes at noon UTC on 4 June, requiring traders to commit before the day's final temperature is confirmed.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.