Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the airport meteorological station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak reading in Celsius.

May sits in Wellington's autumn season, when daytime highs typically range between 13–16°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the highest bracket offered, likely reflecting the statistical rarity of warm autumn days at this latitude. Historical May records for Wellington show occasional peaks near 20°C during settled high-pressure systems, but such days remain outliers rather than the norm. The current consensus appears anchored to cooler-than-average expectations, which aligns with typical late-autumn conditions in the region.

The critical variable is whether a subtropical air mass or warm northerly flow develops across the lower North Island in late May 2026. MetService New Zealand's seasonal outlooks and real-time pressure patterns in the preceding fortnight will signal whether anomalous warmth is possible. Traders should monitor synoptic charts from around 20 May onwards, as the Southern Hemisphere's autumn transition can occasionally produce warm spells when a blocking high-pressure system stalls over the Tasman Sea. The resolution depends entirely on actual recorded data from Wellington Airport's official weather station, making this a pure weather outcome with no institutional discretion.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.