Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Tianhe International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The crowd currently assigns this outcome zero probability, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full distribution.

August represents the height of Wuhan's summer season, when daily highs routinely exceed 35°C. Historical data from the past decade shows temperatures on this date clustering between 33–38°C, with occasional excursions toward 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% implied probability across all ranges suggests the market may be mispriced at the extremes—either the lowest bands (sub-30°C) or highest bands (above 40°C) could harbour value if traders believe seasonal patterns or climate variability warrant wider consideration than current pricing reflects.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August 2026, creating a tight resolution window that depends entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations feed from Tianhe Airport. Traders should monitor summer weather patterns through July 2026 and any significant atmospheric systems developing across central China in early August. The specificity of using Daily Observations rather than the Day High & Low summary section means resolution hinges on granular station data rather than rounded figures, potentially creating narrow bands where precision matters.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.