Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on 19 July 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue with market initialisation. Wuhan's July climate is characterised by intense heat; historical data shows the city regularly records daily highs between 32–38°C during mid-summer, with occasional peaks exceeding 40°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across all outcomes is unusual and indicates traders may be waiting for clearer range definitions or for the market to stabilise before committing capital.

Wuhan's summer temperatures depend heavily on the East Asian monsoon pattern and subtropical high-pressure systems. July 2026 forecasting remains speculative at this distance, but seasonal norms suggest the most likely outcome sits in the 33–37°C band based on thirty-year averages. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña signals in early 2026, as these drive regional heat intensity. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July, meaning local morning temperatures won't be captured; the highest reading will reflect afternoon conditions when Wuhan typically peaks. The absence of meaningful trading activity suggests this market may attract interest only as the date approaches and range probabilities become more granular.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.