Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s **lowest temperature on 5 August** has already been priced by the market at **0% YES**, with the crowd effectively treating a sub-range outcome as vanishingly unlikely. The current consensus is concentrated in the **mid-to-high 20s Celsius**, led by **27°C** and **26°C**, which makes the favourite the warmer overnight-minimum band rather than anything unusually cool.[1]

That framing is consistent with Hong Kong’s August climate, when nocturnal lows are typically sticky and only occasionally dip into the low 20s unless rain, cloud cover, or a stronger-than-usual monsoonal flow suppresses daytime heating and lifts overnight humidity. Last year’s 5 August minimum reached **24.0°C** at the Observatory amid heavy rain, showing that a cooler print is possible, but it generally needs a weather setup that is materially wetter or more disturbed than a normal summer day.[16] On that basis, the crowd is leaning to the favourite side in the **26–27°C** zone, while any value on the underdog is tied to an unusually cool, rain-affected dawn rather than a broad summer chill.

For traders, the key catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s forecast updates and, ultimately, the final **Daily Extract** publication that locks the official “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” reading; the market cannot resolve until that data is posted.[4][5] Short-range city weather notices from the Hong Kong government already point to a wet, warm setup across nearby days, with forecast minimums for Hong Kong and other cities sitting in the upper 20s to around 30°C, which supports the market’s consensus but still leaves a narrow contrarian case if rainfall strengthens overnight cooling.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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