Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 13 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to this event resolving, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity across the full spectrum of possible outcomes. Hong Kong's July climate sits firmly within the summer monsoon season, when overnight minima rarely dip below 25°C even in the most favourable conditions.

Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows July daily minimums typically range between 25.0°C and 27.5°C, with the absolute lowest July temperature on record standing at 22.3°C (recorded in 1961). The 0% crowd probability likely reflects consensus clustering around the 25–27°C band rather than genuine certainty about the precise settlement range. Traders should examine whether the market has properly distributed probability across the full resolution categories or whether mispricing exists at the extremes—particularly in the sub-25°C brackets where historical precedent is sparse but meteorologically possible.

Monitoring the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any unusual atmospheric patterns in early July 2026 will be essential. Tropical cyclone activity, which occasionally brings cooler air masses to the region, represents the primary catalyst for temperatures deviating significantly from the seasonal norm. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, allowing traders to react to actual overnight readings before final publication of the daily extract data.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.