World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup penalty market is pricing in a **4%** chance of hitting the threshold, so the crowd is leaning strongly to **No** and treating a large run of missed-or-saved spot-kicks as a longshot. In handicapper terms, that makes **No** the favourite and **Yes** the underdog, with any value on the overside needing either an unusually high volume of penalties or a below-average conversion rate across the tournament. The market only counts penalties in normal time, stoppage time and extra time, so shootout drama does not help; that keeps the pool narrower than a casual World Cup penalties narrative might suggest.

Historically, World Cup penalties can be memorable, but the sample is not especially large. FIFA World Cup history has produced 35 shoot-outs, while individual penalty failures in open play have been relatively sparse, with Guinness World Records noting just two missed penalties by Asamoah Gyan in World Cup play and Opta-recorded examples such as Lionel Messi missing twice in his first three attempts[1][6][7]. That profile argues for a low base rate, which fits the market’s 4% yes price. The contrarian case is that a larger 48-team tournament format should create more knockout matches and more penalty chances overall, so traders looking for value on **Yes** are effectively betting against a conservative consensus and on a tournament that delivers more foul-box chaos than the average World Cup.

For catalysts, keep an eye on FIFA’s final tournament schedule, referee appointments and any guidance on how advantage, VAR or added time is being handled, because those factors shape penalty frequency more than headline scorers do. The 2026 event is already generating penalty history chatter, with recent reporting on Messi and Harry Kane’s World Cup penalty records underlining how few elite takers can swing the tournament’s raw totals[5]. The main dependency remains match volume: if the knockout bracket is tight and games open up late, the underdog case for **Yes** improves; if the tournament is full of routine wins and few box incidents, the consensus **No** side keeps the edge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.